Supplementary Materials for How to compete with robots by assessing job automation risks and resilient alternatives Antonio Paolillo et al. Corresponding author: Dario Floreano, [email protected]; Rafael Lalive, [email protected] Sci. Robot. 7, eabg5561 (2022) DOI: 10.1126/scirobotics.abg5561 This PDF file includes: Supplementary Text Tables S1 to S6 Figs. S1 to S4 References (25–123) TRL evaluation of the robotic abilities We inspected the state-of-the-art of each robotic ability to assess the corresponding TRLs used in the ARI computation. To this end, we reviewed the scientific literature in the fields of robotics and machine learning. We primarily consulted review and survey papers, to have a general overview of the technology behind the individual robotic abilities. If there were no survey papers, we used more specific papers to describe the current development stage. Whenever possible, the websites of available commercial products or pertinent applications are given as evidence of the technology readiness. Value Definition 1 Basic principle observed and reported 2 Technology concept formulated 3 Experimental proof of concept 4 Technology validated in lab 5 Technology validated in relevant environment 6 Technology demonstrated in relevant environment 7 System prototype demonstration in operational environment 8 System complete and qualified 9 Actual system proven in operational environment Table S1: Technology Readiness Level scale18 used to evaluate the maturity of robotic abilities. Human ability Matched robotic abilities Active learning None (Unmatched) Match ed Human ability TRL Matched robotic abilities Match ed TRL Operation and control None (Unmatched) 0/9 9 0/9 Active listening None (Unmatched) 0/9 Operation monitoring Direct single and multiparameter sensing + Recognition of the need for task adaptation Arm-hand steadiness Position constrained parameterised motion 9 Operations analysis None (Unmatched) 0/9 Auditory attention Object detection 7 Oral comprehension Social interaction 9 Category flexibility Context-based recognition + Pre-defined reasoning 6 Oral expression Social interaction 9 Complex problem solving Task reasoning 4 Originality None (Unmatched) 0/9 Control precision Position constrained parameterised motion 9 Perceptual speed Context-based recognition Coordination Direct physical interaction + Intuitive interaction 4 Peripheral vision None (Unmatched) 0/9 Critical thinking Task reasoning 4 Persuasion None (Unmatched) 0/9 Deductive reasoning Pre-defined reasoning 9 Problem sensitivity Recognition of the need for parameter adaptation 9 Depth perception None (Unmatched) 0/9 Programming None (Unmatched) 0/9 Dynamic autonomy + Recognition of the need for task adaptation 4 6 Dynamic flexibility None (Unmatched) 0/9 Quality control analysis Dynamic strength None (Intrinsic) 9 Rate control None (Unmatched) 0/9 Equipment maintenance Recognition of the need for parameter adaptation 9 Reaction time None (Unmatched) 0/9 Equipment selection Adaptation of individual components 8 Reading comprehension None (Unmatched) 0/9 Explosive strength None (Intrinsic) 9 Repairing None (Unmatched) 0/9 Extent flexibility Position constrained parameterised motion 9 Response orientation Dynamic autonomy + Predefined closed loop motion 4 Far vision None (Unmatched) 0/9 Science None (Unmatched) 0/9 Finger dexterity Complex object grasping 8 Selective attention None (Unmatched) 0/9 Flexibility of Context-based recognition closure + Parameterised motion 6 Service orientation None (Unmatched) 0/9 Fluency of ideas None (Unmatched) 0/9 Social perceptiveness Intuitive interaction + Social interaction 4 Glare sensitivity None (Unmatched) 0/9 Sound localization None (Unmatched) 0/9 Gross body coordination Position constrained parameterised motion 9 Spatial orientation Feature based location 7 Gross body equilibrium Position constrained parameterised motion 9 Speaking None (Unmatched) 0/9 Hearing sensitivity Direct single and multiparameter sensing + Object detection 7 Speech clarity None (Unmatched) 0/9 Inductive reasoning Observation learning 7 Speech recognition None (Unmatched) 0/9 Information ordering None (Unmatched) 0/9 Installation None (Unmatched) 0/9 Speed of limb movement Parameterised motion 9 Instructing None (Unmatched) 0/9 Stamina None (Intrinsic) 9 Judgment and decision making Dynamic autonomy + Task reasoning 4 Static strength None (Unmatched) 0/9 Learning strategies Interaction acquisition 4 Systems analysis Basic environment envisioning 3 Management of financial resources None (Unmatched) 0/9 Systems evaluation Multiple parameter adaptation 9 Management of material resources None (Unmatched) 0/9 Technology design None (Unmatched) 0/9 Management of personnel resources None (Unmatched) 0/9 Time management None (Unmatched) 0/9 Manual dexterity Unknown object handling 5 Time sharing None (Unmatched) 0/9 Mathematical reasoning None (Intrinsic) 9 Troubleshooting Dynamic autonomy + Individual parameter adaptation 4 Mathematics None (Intrinsic) 9 Trunk strength None (Intrinsic) 9 Speed of closure Context-based recognition 6 Memorization None (Unmatched) 0/9 Visual color discrimination None (Unmatched) 0/9 Monitoring Dynamic autonomy 4 Visualization Flexible object interaction 3 Multi-limb coordination None (Unmatched) 0/9 Wrist-finger speed None (Unmatched) 0/9 Near vision None (Unmatched) 0/9 Writing None (Unmatched) 0/9 Negotiation None (Unmatched) 0/9 Written comprehension None (Unmatched) 0/9 Night vision None (Unmatched) 0/9 Written expression None (Unmatched) 0/9 Number facility None (Intrinsic) 9 Table S2: List of the 87 human abilities, the corresponding matched robotic abilities and matched TRL. We match a total of 36 human abilities, and in the case of a match with a combination of two robotic abilities, we consider the lower TRL. When a match was not possible, we assigned a matched TRL of 0 and 9 for the low-automation and high-automation scenario, respectively. A TRL of 0 means robots can not match humans, whereas 9 means robots outperform humans. In this section, we present the evaluation of each robotic ability considered in our study. The evaluation has been performed considering the Technological Readiness Level (TRL) scale as defined by the European Union18 (see Table S1). In what follows, each robotic ability is listed with the corresponding MAR definition (italic font) and the state of the art review. Table S2 gives an overview on the human-robotic abilities matching and the corresponding TRL. Direct physical human-robot interaction, i.e., the user controls the robot by physically interacting with it. The robot reacts to the user interaction by feeding back physical information to the user via the contact point. Physical human-robot interaction has reached a high level of maturity. It integrates diverse technologies and research in the fields of control, sensing, mechanical design and many more25. Nowadays, it is possible to design and build robots with the ability to perceive collisions and react to them26. Technological advances in this field led to the building of impressive robot manipulators, such as LBR iiwa manufactured by KUKA27 and Panda by Franka Emika28, that demonstrate this ability in mass-produced robots. Thus, we assessed the TRL of this robotic ability to 9. Complex object grasping, i.e., the robot is able to pick up an object belonging to a certain parameterised type where the object can be articulated, or consists of multiple separate parts. Robotic grasping, essential for the execution of everyday-life tasks, is a lively research activity spanning from mechanical design to machine learning29. Solutions such as claws, suction cups or a combination of these30 are used in structured industrial environments. More complex and general grasping is made possible by the employment of either soft materials31,32 or fingers33,34. Some commercially available soft material solutions exist, such as the Festo MultiChoiceGripper35 and the SoftRoboticsInc mGrip36. Among many available robotic hands37, platforms worth mentioning are the Soft Hand38 by qb robotics and Hannes39,40 developed by IIT and INAIL. To the best of our knowledge, neither of these technologies on their own are a general solution, but the impressive examples justify a TRL of 8. Unknown object handling, i.e., the robot is able to determine the generic grasping properties of an unknown object. It is able to use those properties to determine how to handle and place the object. How to grasp an unknown object has been extensively studied in an analytical way41 as well as using data-driven approaches42. A large effort has been employed to find a solution to industrial applications43; promising solutions44,45 are paving the road to have a comprehensive and generic technology to pick-and-place unknown objects. However, at the current stage, this ability is the focus of more scientific research than commercial development46. For this ability we consider a TRL of 5. Dynamic autonomy, i.e., the system is able to alter its decisions about actions (sub-tasks) within the time frame of dynamic events that occur in the environment so that the execution of the task remains optimal to some degree. To deal with a changing environment, robots need deliberation abilities47, e.g. in the form of a supervisor or planner48, to make decisions online towards a desired objective. Recent advances of reinforcement learning49,50 techniques and its hierarchical variants51–53 show the possibility to learn how to make decisions on a sequence of sub-tasks to achieve a pre-defined goal. Although these approaches look promising, they have not been proven safe when deployed in the real world. As an exception, autonomous driving received considerable attention for the advancement of technology and necessary legal and ethical regulation54–56. This cannot be said for other applications, we thus consider TRL equal to 4. Pre-defined closed-loop motion, i.e., the robot carries out pre-defined moves in sequence where each motion is controlled to ensure position and/or speed goals are satisfied within some error bound. Parameterised motion, i.e., the robot can execute a path move that optimises for a parameter. Position constrained parameterised motion, i.e., the robot can operate through a physically constrained region while at the same time optimising a parameter or set of parameters that constrain the motions of the robot. Robot motion represents a foundational robotic ability and several control techniques exist 57–59. The complexity of motion and the presence of multiple constraints - from the robot and the environment - pushed roboticists to leverage optimization techniques60 to compute or plan robot trajectories61. Nowadays, robot manipulators are able to perform very accurate motion27,28, humanoids can achieve multiple motion tasks simultaneously62, and mobile robots are capable of autonomous motion in domestic environments63,64: each of these robotic motion abilities are evaluated with a TRL of 9. Direct single and multi-parameter sensing, i.e., a robot uses sensors that provide a single, or multiple parameter output directly, for example a distance sensor, or a contact sensor. The robot utilizes these outputs to directly alter behavior within an operating cycle. The vast majority of commercially-available robots rely on several sensing modalities for altering their behavior65. For this reason, we set a TRL of 9. Object detection, i.e., multiple persistent features can be grouped to build models of distinct objects allowing objects to be differentiated from each other and from the environment. We matched this robotic ability with the human abilities ‘Auditory attention’ and ‘Hearing Sensitivity’’. Thus the object here is a sound. Products66–69 making use of sound detection and natural language understanding are available on the market (see also the robotic ability “Social interaction”) for applications such as home automation and music recognition. However, sound source localization systems still present challenging problems when applied to robotics70,71. Current commercial sound localization is scaled too large for a single robot (such as ShotSpotter72), or limited to identifying a direction (such as the ReSpeaker Mic Array73). For this reason we set a TRL of 7. Context-based recognition, i.e., the system is able to use its knowledge of context or location to improve its ability to recognise objects by reducing ambiguities through expectations based on location or context. Context modelling for object recognition has received a lot of attention in the last few decades 74. Inspired by studies in the domain of cognitive science75, many approaches are proposed to exploit context information to recognize and categorize objects within a scene76. Despite the efforts, this ability still heavily depends on environmental conditions77,78. For this reason we evaluate this ability to be at TRL 6. Multiple object detection, i.e., the system is able to delineate multiple objects from the static environment where there may be partially occluded with respect to the sense data gathered. Many multi-object trackers have been proposed and compared79, including systems specific to the handling of occlusions80. Even though industrial solutions to detect multiple objects using different sensors1,82 are available, to our knowledge, the provided technologies strongly depend on the application, for which it is complicated to have a general solution: TRL=8. Feature-based location, i.e., the system calculates its position within an environment based on the motion of fixed features in the environment. Simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) is a well-known technique used to estimate the location of a robot in an environment while building or updating a map. A lot of work has been done in research and, despite a strong interest from companies83, a number of challenges still have to be solved in the robotics domain84. For this reason, we assessed the TRL of this robotic ability to 7. Recognition of the need for parameter adaptation, i.e., the system recognizes the need for parameter adaptation. Individual parameter adaptation, i.e., the system alters individual parameters in any part of the system based on assessments of performance local to the module on which the parameter operates. Several control techniques enable robotic behavior adaptation to the uncertainty introduced by real-world applications85,86. Among others, proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control law is a simple, mature technique used to control industrial processes or implement robot low-level control loops. An automatic tuning of its parameters is possible and industrial products exist87. These abilities are given a TRL of 9. Multiple parameter adaptation, i.e., the system alters several parameters based on the aggregate performance of a set of interconnected or closely coupled modules. Artificial neural networks are powerful function approximators and their parameters can be adjusted to maximize their accuracy. The set of techniques used to train artificial neural networks, today also referred to as deep learning88 has been demonstrated to be versatile and applicable to several domains including robotics (despite several limitations)89 and other commercial applications, such as the Google thermostat68 or a recent application from DeepMind AI90 to improve energy consumption: TRL=9. Adaptation of individual components, i.e., the system selects one of several processing components based on online feedback during operation. The use of different sensory components can be handled at the level of control design. For instance, composite adaptive techniques use both predicted torque and tracking error to drive the motion of a manipulator91 In a visual tracker, different kinds of features can be weighted according to their level of noise using tools from statistics92. From an estimation problem perspective, the Kalman filter and its variations93,94 provide a method to fuse different sensor information and weigh the estimation according to the reliability of the measurement. The Kalman filter is widely used across different domains95. We set a TRL of 8. Recognition of the need for task adaptation, i.e., the system recognises that the performance of a particular task could be optimised according to some metric, but no adaptation is performed. Multiple task adaptation, i.e., a set of tasks performed during the process cycle is adapted over time (by reordering tasks or by adapting individual ones) to optimise a particular metric; adaptation is the result of accumulated experience. Recent advances in the field of robotic learning allowed the implementation of task adaptation schemes. For example, one approach is used to adapt the robot to a particular task and environment96. Another example is an adaptive scheme which allows smooth task switching in the context of human-robot interaction97. Learning from demonstration can be used to learn task prioritization for bimanual manipulation applications98. It is worth mentioning applications of reinforcement learning, whose ambitious objective is to implement a general framework able to adapt to the different application domains, as shown in the context of playing games99,100. While the recognition of the need for adaptation can be considered an easy robotic ability (TRL=9), we think that some work still needs to be done to achieve a general paradigm for multiple task adaptation. Thus, for this ability we assessed a TRL of 4. Flexible object interaction, i.e., the system is able to envision the effect its planned actions will have on flexible objects that it has parameterised. Simulations can be used to envision the effect of robotic actions and decide the best one to take101. Two practical examples worth mentioning are pancake preparation102 and laundry folding103. While the laundry folding is being investigated by a private company, no products are available at the moment and their prototype is limited in what it can fold104. Both these applications are very specific and neither are commercially available yet, thus we could not assess a TRL higher than 3. Basic environment envisioning, i.e., the system is able to observe events in the environment that relate to the task and envision their impact on the actions of the robot. Recent advances in computer vision using deep neural networks allow accurate object detection and tracking105. This information can be used to forecast the object motion and use it to modify the current motion planning of the robot 106. Despite few exceptions in autonomous driving and unmanned aerial vehicles, the research on this field is still in its early stage: TRL=3. Interaction acquisition, i.e., the system is able to acquire knowledge about its environment and objects within it through planned interactions with the environment and objects. The trial and error mechanism of reinforcement learning enables the agent to learn how to interact with its environment107. The bottleneck of this approach is that it requires long training sessions that, thus, have to run on simulation. This process introduces a discrepancy between the simulated environment and the real task, an issue known as reality gap. Therefore, extensive research has been applied to transfer what has been learnt on simulation to the real robot efficiently108,109. However, deep reinforcement learning has not reached yet a state in which it can be safely deployed to products: TRL=4 Observation learning, i.e., the system is able to acquire knowledge indirectly from observing other robots or people carrying out tasks. Imitation learning was introduced to simplify the role of the robotic user in implementing desired tasks110. Today, techniques developed under the name of programming by demonstration111 and learning from demonstration112 are popular in robotics. Even if very impressive show cases of this ability exist113, it is difficult to find something close to a final product (TRL=7). Pre-defined reasoning, i.e., the robot is able to use basic pre-defined knowledge about structures and objects in the environment to guide action and interaction. Many robots have a pre-defined knowledge of the environment in which they will operate. Examples are industrial manipulators that can be aware of their workspace114,115, and warehouse mobile robots or autonomous cars that can be aware of a map of their operational environment116. Thus, for this basic ability, we assessed a TRL=9. Task reasoning, i.e., the system is able to reason about the appropriate courses of action to achieve a task where there are alternative actions that can be undertaken. Typically the system will be able to identify the course of action which matches the desired task parameters, typically these involve time to completion, resource usage, or a desired performance level. Making decisions on the course of actions to accomplish a task is treated by reinforcement learning, where the optimality of the task execution can be defined with an appropriate reward function during training. Specifically in robotics, reinforcement learning49,50,117 has been demonstrated to be an effective technique to carry out very complex tasks like playing games with humanlevel performance89,99 or performing complex maneuvers with a helicopter118. However, several issues such as safety or the reality gap problem (see “Interaction acquisition”) limit its application outside academic purposes: TRL=4. Social interaction, i.e., the system is able to maintain dialogues that cover more than one type of social interaction, or domain task. The robot is able to manage the interaction provided it remains within the defined context of the task or mission. The technology of dialogue systems is quite advanced119, thanks to the availability of a multitude of machine learning techniques able to handle big amounts of data. Market products such as Siri by Apple67, Alexa by Amazon66 and Google Home68 are valuable examples of systems able to hold a conversation with humans, applying speech recognition and machine learning techniques: TRL set to 9. Intuitive interaction, i.e., the robot is able to intuit the needs of a user with or without explicit command or dialogue. The user may communicate to the robot without issuing explicit commands. The robot will intuit from the current context and historical information the implied command. Even if impressive products showing effective verbal communication exist (see “Social interaction”), technology to ensure both fluent verbal and non-verbal human-robot interaction does not seem to be ready120. Indeed, recent work spells out the complexity of this ability and the need for more advanced solutions able to make the human-robot interaction more natural121. Furthermore, the relatively low TRL of the simpler “Object Detection” ability indicates that a system capable of detecting the subtle indicators required for non-verbal communication is still far off. Thus, for this ability, we assessed a TRL=4. Sensitivity analysis for ARI calculations The proposed approach assumes that we have no information on the skills and abilities that were not matched and assessed. In order to account for those skills and abilities too, we specified two scenarios, a low-automation and a high-automation scenario, which we report in Table 1 of the Main Text (reproduced below for convenience). Without posterior information, we adopt a uniform prior probability of one half for each scenario to calculate the ARI122 . Specifying a probability distribution over the high-automation or the low-automation scenario appears challenging, as both these scenarios are extreme cases, while the real world likely is somewhere in between. Our sensitivity analysis assumes that TRL information is missing at random, a common assumption in statistics on missing values123. When TRL data is missing at random, we can complete it by drawing TRL information at random from the set of skills and abilities that have been assessed. Repeating this process several times, we estimate a probability distribution of ARI values. Specifically, to perform our sensitivity analysis, we refer to the set of abilities and skills that are “assessed” with A , and to the remaining skills and abilities that are “not assessed” with N. The algorithm for the sensitivity analysis is then as follows: 1. Randomly draw a TRL from A and attribute this TRL to a member of N. This step provides a TRL for each member in N such that its TRL distribution mimics the TRL distribution in A. 2. Calculate ARI using the inferred TRL on N and the actual TRL on A to compute function f in equation (1) of the Main Text. 3. Repeat steps 1-2 999 times (an odd number that simplifies estimation of the median and percentiles). This step provides an estimate of the probability distribution of ARI values (e.g. the 999 calculated values of ARI). 4. We summarize the probability distribution of the ARI values using the average of the 999 ARI calculated values (Mean), and 5 percent smallest (p5) and largest ARI values (p95). Comparing ARI estimates in the Main Text to ARI estimates in the sensitivity analysis (Table S3 below, column Mean), we note that the sensitivity analysis produces ARI estimates that are higher than those given in the Main Text, e.g. ARI is 0.49 for physicists in the sensitivity analysis, and 0.44 in the Main Text (mean sensitivity vs mean Main Text). This suggests that the approach in the Main Text is more conservative, i.e. generates lower ARI values. The ARI estimates from the sensitivity analysis tend to be about 10-15 percent larger than the ARI estimates with the method described in the Main Text (Physicists: 0.44 in the Main Text, and 0.49 in the sensitivity analysis; Electrical Engineering Technicians: 0.61 in the Main Text vs 0.74 in the sensitivity analysis). Nonetheless, ARI estimates from the sensitivity analysis are similar to those in the Main Text in relative terms: the ranks of occupations according to their ARI values remain mostly unchanged, and the ARI estimates in the sensitivity analysis are all within the bounds specified by the lowautomation and high-automation ARI scenarios documented in the Main Text. Main Texta Sensitivity (low-automation- high- (Missing at Random) automation) Occupation low- high- Rank Mean automat automatio Rank Mean ion n p5 p95 Physicists 1 0.44 0.20 0.67 1 0.49 0.43 0.55 Robotics Engineers 122 0.55 0.31 0.80 78 0.64 0.59 0.69 Economists 203 0.57 0.31 0.83 207 0.68 0.61 0.74 Electrical Engineering Technicians Slaughterers and Meat Packers 458 0.61 0.38 0.85 462 0.74 0.69 0.78 967 0.78 0.57 0.99 967 0.95 0.92 0.98 Table S3. Sensitivity Analysis. ARI from the Main Text (adopting the high-low automation Scenario approach), compared against ARI as estimated by the sensitivity analysis (adopting the Missing at Random strategy). Mean is the mean prediction, p5 is the 5th percentile, p95 is the 95th percentile. Figure S1: Sensitivity analysis for ARI estimates. The figure plots ARI estimates of all occupations computed with the sensitivity analysis (assuming data are missing at random) against ARI estimates computed with the method described in the Main Text (average of low-automation and high-automation scenarios). Each data point refers to one occupation. Despite small differences in the ARI estimates computed with the two methods (Figure S1), we find a very close agreement between the two approaches in terms of their correlation (simple correlation coefficient = 0.9913, Spearman rank order correlation =0.9915). This suggests that the two approaches capture similar patterns in the underlying data. Validity check Our first external validation exercise concerns whether ARI predicts effects on the labor market. This question is hard to address because the largest outcomes of automation are probably not yet fully realized, and yet to come. However, existing literature has addressed in more detail the effect of computerization on the labor market. Computerization refers to innovations in industrial production that already happened in the last decades of the last century. A notable contribution to this literature19 argues that the effect of computerization differs by the task content of jobs, i.e. by whether they are routine or not, and by whether they are manual or cognitive. This study19 predicted that Routine jobs will suffer strongly from competition by computers, whereas Non-Routine Cognitive jobs would benefit from better computing power, and NonRoutine Manual jobs would be neutral to computerization. Autor and Dorn15 later showed that regions of the U.S. that specialized in routine tasks experienced both labor market polarization (job growth in low skilled services), and wage polarization (strong earnings growth at the tails of the distribution). In order to check if our ARI values comply with the analysis described by those authors, we classify the jobs of this study according to Autor and Dorn into Non-Routine Cognitive, Non-Routine Manual, Routine, and compute the average ARI of each job category. According to Autor and Dorn, Routine and Non-Routine Manual jobs should face a higher risk of computerization. Consistently, our analysis reveals that Routine occupations have higherARI than Non-Routine Cognitive occupations (Table S4). Interestingly, our analysis reveals that Non-Routine Manual occupations have the same high ARI of Routine occupations, whereas Autor et al.19 predicted that they should neither suffer nor benefit from computerization. The high ARI of Non-Routine Manual jobs, e.g. Janitorial services, or Truck driving, derives from the fact that our study considers automation by robots rather than by computers alone, as Autor et al.19 do. Job classification ARI Percentile Non-Routine Cognitive 0.59 36 Non-Routine Manual 0.67 75 Routine 0.67 78 Table S4: Average ARI and average percentile of ARI for Routine, Non-Routine Cognitive and Non-Routine Manual occupations. Technological advancement is a gradual process. While some forms of automation captured by the proposed ARI, such as artificial intelligence, have taken off only recently in the 2010s, other forms, such as industrial robots started to substantially grow already in the 1990s. Therefore, we conjecture that the pressure exerted by automation on occupations with high ARI is a phenomenon that will not only be visible in the future, but could also be observed in the recent past. If that is the case, we expect to observe that both past employment and wages in occupations with low ARI should have been growing faster than in occupations with high ARI. We test this conjecture using data from the Occupation Employment Statistics (OES) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The OES program (already used in our work to assess our method w.r.t. the US economy) provides data on the total number of people working in a given occupation, as well as the mean, median, 10th and 90th percentile of wages, in a comparable format since 2003. In particular, we used data for 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018 to document the long-run trends in employment and wages. We then computed the growth rate of employment as the difference between the log employment in 2008, 2013, 2018, and the 2003 log employment for each occupation, and divided this log difference by the number of years between 2008 (or 2013, 2018) and 2003, i.e., [log(E_it)-log(E_i,2003)]/(t-2003), where E_it is the number of workers employed in occupation i at time t. We thus obtain the annual growth rate between 2008 (or 2013, 2018) and 2003 for each occupation. We then group occupations into terciles according to ARI levels, and provide the average annual growth rate of employment between 2008, 2013, and 2018 vs 2003. Figure S2: Employment growth by ARI. Average annual growth rate of employment between 2008, 2013, or 2018 and 2003 (difference between log occupation employment in 2008, 2013, or 2018 and log employment in 2003, divided by the number of years intervening between 2008, 2013, or 2018 and 2003). Capped spikes provide the 95% confidence interval for the average annual growth rate. Employment growth between 2003 and 2008, as well as between 2003 and 2013, and 2003 and 2018, is positive for occupations with the low ARI (Figure S2). For occupations with medium ARI, employment expands between 2003 and 2008, but remains approximately at the same level in 2013 and 2018 with respect to 2003. Employment substantially drops in occupations with high ARI, and the decline is especially strong in 2013 and 2018 compared to 2003. In summary, occupations with high ARI on average experienced employment decline, while occupations with low ARI experienced strong employment growth. This pattern is consistent with the hypothesis of automation exerting strong pressure on jobs that demand skills and abilities that can be replaced by machines. For each occupation, we also analysed the annual growth rate of the mean hourly wage. As noted previously, we are interested in the evolution of wage levels in 2008, 2013, and 2018 relative to 2003. As for the employment growth, we measure the annual growth rate of wages as the differences between log wage in 2008, 2013, or 2018 and log wages in 2003 divided by the number of intervening years, i.e., [log(W_it)-log(W_i,2003)]/(t-2003)], where W_it is the number of workers employed in occupation i at time t. Figure S3: Wage growth by ARI. Average annual growth rate of the hourly wage in 2008, 2013, or 2018 compared to 2003. Capped spikes provide the 95% confidence interval for the average log difference. Wage levels substantially increased over time, but the evolution of average wages is different for low ARI, medium ARI, and high ARI occupations (Figure S3). Wages increased more for occupations with low ARI compared to occupations with high ARI over the periods 2003 to 2008, and 2003 to 2013. Instead, wage growth became more similar across occupation groups in the period 2003 to 2018. The study by Acemoglu and Restrepo4 indicated slower growth of hourly wages for workers in industries with high robot penetration, over the period 1990 to 2007 consistently with our results for the periods 2003 to 2008 and to 2013. However, our finding for the recent past, where wage dynamics do not seem to be correlated with ARI levels, reveals an interesting phenomenon that would deserve further research. To check that the transitions recommended by our Resilience Index correspond to frequent job transitions observed in the real world, which would confirm their feasibility, we performed the following analysis based on recent data on occupational transitions published by Schubert, Stansbury and Taska24 (2020). Occupational transitions were calculated from 16 million resumés of U.S. workers, obtained and parsed by Burning Glass Technologies (a labor market analytics company) over the period 2002–2016. Specifically, in the Burning Glass Technologies (BGT) data, approximately 217 thousand transitions are presented in a transition matrix. Occupations are defined on the 6-digit Standard Occupational Classification (SOC code). The published data provide information on the share of workers who switch between an occupation A to another occupation B. We augmented this data with the employment share of each occupation 2003 from the OES data. We denote the share of workers in occupation "A" that transitioned to occupation "B", given an average retraining distance (ARE) “D” in the period between 2002 and 2016, as s(AB|D). Then, we calculate the correlations by using s(A)=N(A)/N, the number of workers employed in occupation A, N(A), divided by the total number of workers in the economy, N. s(A) is also called the employment share of occupation A from the OES dataset. We combine this information with BGT transition shares an get s'(AB|D)= s(AB|D)*s(A), which reflects the share of all workers transiting from A to B at a given distance D. This weighted analysis, shown in Figure S4, indicates that the average number of workers making an observed transition from occupation A to occupation B is 488, while the average number of workers who would undertake a transition recommended by our method is 417. The similarity of the two numbers (488 vs 417) indicates that the recommended transitions are feasible because they are close to those observed in the past. Similarly, the correlation between observed and recommended transitions weighted by the occupation size is positive (0.3964) with the main difference being that our method recommends transitions with lower retraining effort, and our method emphasizes recommendations for transitions with smaller average retraining effort than those actually made by people. This result reinforces our belief that our method could be used to make transitions more efficient in terms of retraining effort. The share of persons that transition between occupations with small retraining efforts, as proxied by the ARE values, is high and decreases for higher retraining efforts. Transitions between jobs that have high ARE values are rare, presumably because of educational or ability barriers. The transitions recommended by our risk index (RI) demand little retraining effort and are feasible, as demonstrated by the actual job transitions reported by these new data. Figure S4: Actual and recommended transition. Share of observed occupational transitions (dashed line) and of recommended transitions (solid line) ordered by average retraining distance and weighted by the number of workers in the occupation of origin. Sensitivity analysis for Career Moves Simulation In the Main Text of the article we define RI = (ARIB-ARIA) / ARE. Note that we divide by ARE to the power of one. In a more general framework, we could write the resilience index as a function of a parameter, e.g. theta, and write RIθ = (ARIB-ARIA) / (ARE)θ. The parameter θ can be set to give more (θ > 1) or less (θ <1) weight to job distances and retraining efforts. In addition to the data for θ = 1 that are shown in Table 2 of the Main Text, we performed two new simulations with θ = 2 and θ = 1/2. Occupa tion group Average ARI (average percentile) Average ARI of the best RI suggestion (average percentile) Average ARI change (average percentile change) Average human abilities retraining effort Average human knowledge retraining effort Main Text (RI1) High 0.694 (85.78) 0.626 (54.52) 0.069 (31.26) 0.116 0.071 Medium 0.614 (49.73) 0.549 (20.60) 0.065 (29.13) 0.128 0.120 Low 0.563 (19.59) 0.479 (4.07) 0.085 (15.52) 0.196 0.171 High Retraining Effort ( RI2) High 0.694 (86) 0.659 (71) 0.035 (14) 0.068 0.043 Medium 0.614 (50) 0.588 (34) 0.026 (16) 0.043 0.079 Low 0.563 (20) 0.539 (10) 0.025 (10) 0.056 0.101 Low Retraining Effort (RI(1/2)) High 0.690 (86) 0.440 (4) 0.250 (81) 0.470 0.360 Medium 0.610 (50) 0.440 (1) 0.180 (49) 0.380 0.290 Low 0.560 (20) 0.440 (1) 0.130 (19) 0.290 0.230 Table S5: Sensitivity analysis of career moves for different weighting of the average retraining effort (this is an augmented version of Table 2 in the Main Text). Giving more weight to retraining efforts leads to career transitions that are closer to the original occupation. Consequently, career moves generate smaller improvements in automation risk when retraining effort is high; for example, the improvement in risk is 0.061, or 25 percentiles, for High Risk workers when θ = 1 but it is only 0.035, or 14 percentiles, when theta = 2. The opposite happens for simulations where the importance of the retraining effort is low (θ = 1/2). In order to analyse how our ARI relates to actual transitions happening in the economy, we calculated the number of workers who transition aways from, and towards, each occupation, based on the Burning Glass Technology data on transition shares and OES data on the number of workers. We then group these transitions by ARI terciles. Overall, as shown in Table S6, the flow from higher ARI to lower ARI (lightgray cells) is larger than the flow from lower ARI to higher ARI (dark-gray cells), suggesting that workers tend to transition to occupations with lower risk. Number of workers (x100k) Low ARI Destination (1st tercile) Medium ARI Destination (2nd tercile) High ARI Destination (3rd tercile) Low ARI Origin (1st tercile) 138.5605 49.62519 26.57739 Medium ARI Origin (2nd tercile) 132.6353 87.43871 71.03501 High ARI Origin (3rd tercile) 169.7817 172.9307 219.3909 Table S6: Transitions grouped by ARI terciles. Aggregate number of workers estimated to change from an occupation with an origin ARI tercile (rows) to an occupation with a destination ARI tercile (columns) anywhere between 2002 and 2016. Estimates are based on combined BGT resume data for 2002 and 2016 and OES 2003 data. Light shading indicates worker flows from higher ARI to lower ARI occupations, while dark shading identifies worker flows from lower ARI to higher ARI occupations.
